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Dec 3, 2012
12/12
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again, the market is demonstrated that it believes a deal on the fiscal cliff is coming. i know. i didn't hear it over the weekend. headline risk was all anybody wanted to talk about on friday. if anybody says that a deal is not happening or it's going nowhere, we could wake up down 15 points on the s&p on monday. guess what? boehner said the deal is going nowhere. now, when i call the bulls on this, they say, bob, they didn't say a deal was off. they just said so far the negotiations are going nowhere. the market still believes that a deal is coming and it's going to be a substantive deal. instead and by the way, geithner insisted on tax rates issues. looks like there may be something happening eventually. we didn't fall apart on the whole thing. even futures weren't down overnight. instead we rally on a little bit overnight on the greek deal and for those that don't know and this is arcane depending on what kind of bonds you're talking about, the bonds that they are offering are priced well above what anybody was expecting. that's one of the reasons that greece is moving up and
again, the market is demonstrated that it believes a deal on the fiscal cliff is coming. i know. i didn't hear it over the weekend. headline risk was all anybody wanted to talk about on friday. if anybody says that a deal is not happening or it's going nowhere, we could wake up down 15 points on the s&p on monday. guess what? boehner said the deal is going nowhere. now, when i call the bulls on this, they say, bob, they didn't say a deal was off. they just said so far the negotiations are...
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136
Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's a mess, it's never going to happen and then you wake up and you're down 15 points monday morning. that's a problem figuring out what to do over the weekend. it could go the other way. generally it's a little bit more on the gloomy side. then you have the problem with december. we're going into the last month. today is the last day of november. people are behind the curve. a shocking number of people i spoke to are below whatever their benchmark is. do you lighten up? do you stay long what you got? it's hard to maneuver around because you need to get outperformance. yo
you get a fiscal cliff deal, you'll have tax increases and spending cuts. they'll cut 1%, 1.5% off gdp. that's not good for stock market in 2013. you don't get a deal, you get mandatory spending cuts that will be worse. meantime, there are shorter term worries. how about getting through today? how do you go long or short here today when over the weekend anybody -- i mean almost anybody, can appear on a sunday talk show and make some inflammatory comment about the fiscal cliff not working, it's...
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248
Dec 4, 2012
12/12
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the fiscal cliff very quickly here because the general consensus outlines of a deal out there. i know it doesn't sound that way. they're far apart. blah-blah. here is the idea. elements are emerging, folks, higher tax rates. nobody down here doesn't think there isn't going to be. if it's not 39% for the top 2%, it'll be 38%. some kind of compromise in the a area. the bad news and i've said this several times, the era of american austerity is beginning now and everybody is starting to realize that. the question is what's it going to look like? the good news is it's likely to be a gentle austerity, if i can say that, in 2013 and probably 2014 depending on the spending cuts. and there will be some cushion. the fed likely will continue its q/e program. they'll likely continue that during their meeting on december 12 that could provide some cushion against the austerity that we're going to be seeing in 2013 and 2014. let me comment on a couple of stocks that are moving today. toll brothers, folks, it doesn't get any better than this. 70% in orders. astounding. and their overall marg
the fiscal cliff very quickly here because the general consensus outlines of a deal out there. i know it doesn't sound that way. they're far apart. blah-blah. here is the idea. elements are emerging, folks, higher tax rates. nobody down here doesn't think there isn't going to be. if it's not 39% for the top 2%, it'll be 38%. some kind of compromise in the a area. the bad news and i've said this several times, the era of american austerity is beginning now and everybody is starting to realize...
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167
Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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important thing moving on about the fiscal cliff. the biggest story passed around here this morning was the politico article where they finally put a name on making a deal. the 37% solution, just split the difference between 35.6% and 39.6% increasing taxes and call it the 37% solution. that's the article everybody's been passing around today. on apple, just a quick note on apple here, there was as many notes out as there were analysts on apple. the main point on it is that most agree is that concern on iphone sales are the number one problem. att made a comment yesterday, that basically sales were the same as last year than the first sales of the --. a lot of t back to you guys. >> actually, i would be encouraged if i were an apple shareholder that the stock actually opened down today. if there's any hope. italian bonds getting hit today too. of course worth keeping track of. okay, let's shift the bonds into dollars. >> we're going to stick with that european theme and when bob pisani says central banks and activism in the same sen
important thing moving on about the fiscal cliff. the biggest story passed around here this morning was the politico article where they finally put a name on making a deal. the 37% solution, just split the difference between 35.6% and 39.6% increasing taxes and call it the 37% solution. that's the article everybody's been passing around today. on apple, just a quick note on apple here, there was as many notes out as there were analysts on apple. the main point on it is that most agree is that...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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if the fiscal cliff has you nervous, this may be some relaxing news. as of midnight last night, washington is now the first state in the united states to legalize marijuana for adult recreational use, but the law is not without complications. jane wells is live in l.a. with more on that story. good morning, jane. >> hi, carl. lighting up in seattle is one thing. figuring out how these laws are going to work is another. pot possession may be legal in washington, but it will be another year before the state sets up the bureaucracy, creating a network of legal growers and retailers. they're going to have to set standards for thc. but what about pricing? the state is hoping to raise $600 million a year for pot and they say it could add 5% to gross state product by 2017. but ktlu reports the state's office of finance management says retail prices and medical pot clinics are already $3er gram higher than street prices and you add in taxes. are people going to pay more if they can get it for less. and in colorado, its pot law goes into effect next month but t
if the fiscal cliff has you nervous, this may be some relaxing news. as of midnight last night, washington is now the first state in the united states to legalize marijuana for adult recreational use, but the law is not without complications. jane wells is live in l.a. with more on that story. good morning, jane. >> hi, carl. lighting up in seattle is one thing. figuring out how these laws are going to work is another. pot possession may be legal in washington, but it will be another year...